July 11

Commentary

Overnight Markets:

Corn -1.0 = $3.982

Soybeans -1.25 = $10.112

Wheat -2.75 = $5.516

 

News Wire / Trade Talks:

-Export sales flash of 110K corn sold to unknown

-Weekly Export Sales:

            Wheat = 568K

            Corn = 1262K old and 889K new

            Soybeans = 503K old and 248K new

            Meal = 208K old and 371K new

            Oil = 4K

            Beef = 11.6K

            Pork = 24.3K

-CONAB Report

            Soybeans at 169.488 MMT exports at 106.22 MMT

            Corn at 131.974 vs 128.253K last month.  Exports at 36.0 MMT

-China reporting their wheat production to be 138.16 MMT.  Basically unchanged from last year.

-Despite recent dryness, EU is reporting wheat production of 130.7 MMT.  Up 17.3 MMT from last year’s horrible crop but well below the 5-year average

-Talk OPEC will pause oil production increase after August

-Trump announces 35% tariff on Canada

-Weather Updates:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commentary:

What a wild day in the cattle market.  Both live and feeders gapped higher on news that the Mexican border was again closed to cattle imports.  Trump announcing a 50% tariff on Brazil imports was also a bullish factor as we import a decent amount of beef from Brazil.  The close was not bullish.  Aug live cattle closed down 55 cents which doesn’t sound horrible but that was $3.27 off the highs and a key reversal on the chart.  Box beef prices slid another $1.79 yesterday afternoon.  It was a huge volume day with 63K contracts traded in the August live cattle alone.  That tells me there was a large exchange of ownership.  Maybe funds exiting some longs while sadly some hedgers exited shorts.  I obviously don’t know if that was a top or not, but the huge volume can often be a sign of a change in trend. 

 

I didn’t have anyone sell Nov soybeans yesterday at $10.10.  I just don’t like moves going into a USDA report.  Especially sell orders into a report that on paper should be bullish.  After the report we will likely look to sell. 

 

Today’s report will be bullish for corn if USDA raised export demand 75 million bushels or more.  That size increase would drop old crop ending stocks below 1.3 billion bushels.  The current export pace suggests USDA could increase export demand by 100 million bushels.  If realized the corn market SHOULD trade sharply higher, but sadly it would probably only pop briefly before the trade goes back to trading a very large new crop supply and a bearish weather forecast. 

 

I don’t look for any changes to the soybean balance sheet.  I’m 99% sure new crop yields for both corn and soybeans will be left unchanged. 

 

Spring wheat could see a friendly report as drought continues to hurt the MT crop. 

 

USDA should increase the size of the Brazil corn crop.  CONAB is predicting over a 15 MMT increase y/y for Brazil corn.  China is forecasting a steady wheat and corn crop.  Russia keeps forecast a large wheat crop but I think the crop is much smaller. 

 

On/Off Tariff headlines will continue to rip the markets.  Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada yesterday afternoon.  Talk he will put sanctions on Russia by Monday. 

 

Cheat Sheet for Report:

USDA 2024-25 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA July

Average of

Range of

USDA June

2024-25

analysts'

analysts'

2024-25

end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks

estimates

estimates

Corn

_______

1.353

1.300-1.415

1.365

Soybeans

_______

0.358

0.329-0.380

0.350

USDA 2025-26 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA July

Average of

Range of

USDA June

2025-26

analysts'

analysts'

2025-26

end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks

estimates

estimates

Wheat

_______

0.895

0.842-0.935

0.898

Corn

_______

1.720

1.571-1.856

1.750

Soybeans

_______

0.302

0.275-0.377

0.295

USDA 2025-26 world grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA July

Average of

Range of

USDA June

2025-26

analysts'

analysts'

2025-26

end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks

estimates

estimates

Wheat

________

262.69

256.00-265.00

262.76

Corn

________

277.46

274.00-285.00

275.24

Soybeans

________

126.31

123.50-140.00

125.30

USDA 2025-26 U.S. corn and soybean production

USDA July

Average of

Range of

USDA June

2025-26

analysts'

analysts'

2025-26

estimate

estimates

estimates

estimate

Corn production

______

15.731

15.700-15.820

15.820

Corn yield

______

181.0

181.0-181.5

181.0

Soy production

______

4.334

4.330-4.340

4.340

Soy yield

_____

52.5

52.5-52.5

52.5

USDA 2025-26 U.S. wheat production

USDA July

Average of

Range of

USDA

2025-26

analysts'

analysts'

June

estimate

estimates

estimates

estimates

All wheat

_______

1.915

1.846-1.971

1.921

All winter

_______

1.362

1.317-1.404

1.382

Hard red winter

_______

0.773

0.735-0.802

0.782

Soft red winter

_______

0.341

0.309-0.360

0.345

White winter

_______

0.249

0.236-0.256

0.254

Other spring

_______

0.475

0.443-0.542

NA

Durum

_______

0.079

0.070-0.084

NA

USDA 2024-25 South American corn and soy production

USDA July

Average of

Range of

USDA June

2024-25

analysts'

analysts'

2024-25

estimates

estimates

estimates

estimates

ARGENTINA

Corn

________

49.97

49.00-50.50

50.00

Soybeans

________

49.27

49.00-50.00

49.00

BRAZIL

Corn

________

132.53

130.00-136.10

130.00

Soybeans

________

169.25

168.75-171.00

169.00

USDA world production

July USDA

June USDA

July USDA

June USDA

2024-25

2024-25

2025-26

2025-26

estimate

estimate

estimate

estimate

Argentina wheat

_____

18.54

_____

20.00

Australia wheat

_____

34.11

_____

31.00

Canada wheat

_____

34.96

_____

36.00

Russia wheat

_____

81.60

_____

83.00

Ukraine wheat

_____

23.40

_____

23.00

Argentina corn

_____

50.00

_____

53.00

Brazil corn

_____

130.00

_____

131.00

South Africa corn

_____

15.75

____

16.50

Ukraine corn

______

26.80

______

30.50

China corn

_____

294.92

_____

295.00

Argentina soy

_____

49.00

_____

48.50

Brazil soy

______

169.00

______

175.00