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July 11Commentary Overnight Markets: Corn -1.0 = $3.982 Soybeans -1.25 = $10.112 Wheat -2.75 = $5.516
News Wire / Trade Talks: -Export sales flash of 110K corn sold to unknown -Weekly Export Sales: Wheat = 568K Corn = 1262K old and 889K new Soybeans = 503K old and 248K new Meal = 208K old and 371K new Oil = 4K Beef = 11.6K Pork = 24.3K -CONAB Report Soybeans at 169.488 MMT exports at 106.22 MMT Corn at 131.974 vs 128.253K last month. Exports at 36.0 MMT -China reporting their wheat production to be 138.16 MMT. Basically unchanged from last year. -Despite recent dryness, EU is reporting wheat production of 130.7 MMT. Up 17.3 MMT from last year’s horrible crop but well below the 5-year average -Talk OPEC will pause oil production increase after August -Trump announces 35% tariff on Canada -Weather Updates:
Commentary: What a wild day in the cattle market. Both live and feeders gapped higher on news that the Mexican border was again closed to cattle imports. Trump announcing a 50% tariff on Brazil imports was also a bullish factor as we import a decent amount of beef from Brazil. The close was not bullish. Aug live cattle closed down 55 cents which doesn’t sound horrible but that was $3.27 off the highs and a key reversal on the chart. Box beef prices slid another $1.79 yesterday afternoon. It was a huge volume day with 63K contracts traded in the August live cattle alone. That tells me there was a large exchange of ownership. Maybe funds exiting some longs while sadly some hedgers exited shorts. I obviously don’t know if that was a top or not, but the huge volume can often be a sign of a change in trend.
I didn’t have anyone sell Nov soybeans yesterday at $10.10. I just don’t like moves going into a USDA report. Especially sell orders into a report that on paper should be bullish. After the report we will likely look to sell.
Today’s report will be bullish for corn if USDA raised export demand 75 million bushels or more. That size increase would drop old crop ending stocks below 1.3 billion bushels. The current export pace suggests USDA could increase export demand by 100 million bushels. If realized the corn market SHOULD trade sharply higher, but sadly it would probably only pop briefly before the trade goes back to trading a very large new crop supply and a bearish weather forecast.
I don’t look for any changes to the soybean balance sheet. I’m 99% sure new crop yields for both corn and soybeans will be left unchanged.
Spring wheat could see a friendly report as drought continues to hurt the MT crop.
USDA should increase the size of the Brazil corn crop. CONAB is predicting over a 15 MMT increase y/y for Brazil corn. China is forecasting a steady wheat and corn crop. Russia keeps forecast a large wheat crop but I think the crop is much smaller.
On/Off Tariff headlines will continue to rip the markets. Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada yesterday afternoon. Talk he will put sanctions on Russia by Monday.
Cheat Sheet for Report: USDA 2024-25 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA 2025-26 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA 2025-26 world grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA 2025-26 U.S. corn and soybean production
USDA 2025-26 U.S. wheat production
USDA 2024-25 South American corn and soy production
USDA world production
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