July 16

Commentary

Overnight Markets:

Corn +4.75 = $4.06

Soybeans +7.0 = $10.02

Wheat -.5 = $5.374

News Wire / Trade Talks:

-Trade deal made between US and Indonesia

-June NOPA crush came in at 185 million bushels that is up 10 million bushels from last year

-Weather Updates:

Commentary:

Grains are up again overnight.  Funds have been absent from the corn market this week.  The lack of fund selling has allowed Dec corn to rally back up to the 20-day moving average of $4.25.  There is a gap at $4.32.  The bullish news is mostly the same news we had when the market dropped.  Demand is good and USDA reports are friendly.  The added news now is above normal temps in the extended forecast.  The hot temps are forecasted when about half the crop will be pollinating.  The weather premium is justified.  How far we go will depend on the funds. I assume they defend short positions and sell the market again, but I don’t know that for sure.  My hope is we made a major low this week. 

Soybeans are up overnight as well putting Nov soybean back up to $10.10.  So far this week the overnight rallies are being sold during the day session.  The heat next week will come after moderate to heavy rains fall over the heart of the Midwest.  Maybe $10.00 will hold as major support but I doubt it. 

The cattle market bounced back yesterday.  Right now, I’m calling Monday’s crash as just a correction in and ongoing bullish market.  Key will be cash trade.  Box beef prices are off the highs but found some support at $377.  Packer profit margins are likely negative, but is cash cattle supply so tight they have no choice but to continue to pay over $240?  Cash cattle need to break before the board, which is at a steep discount to cash, can really fall apart. 

Posted on Jul 16 at 05:54